Hey folks, let's talk about the USDA Cattle on Feed report coming out on Friday, January 1. It's a big deal for the cattle market, and analysts are keeping a close eye on it. They're expecting the number of cattle on feed to be around 102.2% of what it was last year, putting the total at 11.94 million head. That's a bit higher than January 2023 but still less than the total from the December report.
Now, if the on-feed numbers drop below 12 million head, as anticipated, it signals that we've likely hit the peak of cattle inventory for the year. That's good news for the market, suggesting some stability as we move forward.
The focus lately has been on cattle placement numbers, and this month is no different. Analysts are predicting a decrease from last year, around 95.4%. This would mean about 1.72 million head, the lowest since August. Importantly, if this pans out, it suggests that the peak placement for the marketing year has passed, and we can expect more typical spring placement levels in the months ahead.
Now, onto the marketing side of things. It usually doesn't get much attention, but this time it's expected to be at 99.2% of last year's marketings, the highest since June, though still a bit lower than November.
Overall, the report is seen as neutral since the market has likely factored in these estimates. However, even small changes from these predictions could cause some shifts in the market next week once traders can react to Friday's report, which comes out at 2 p.m. CST.
Here are the expected numbers:
* On Feed Jan. 1: 102.2% (Range: 101.4-102.5%)
* Placed in December: 95.4% (Range: 91.5-98.0%)
* Marketed in December: 99.2% (Range: 98.2-100.7%)
So, keep an eye out for those results and let's see how the cattle market moves in the coming days.
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